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    Short term prediction

    Row

    Hospital Admissions

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    Mortality

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    Row

    Hospital Admissions (cumulative)

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    Mortality (cumulative)

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    Long term prediction

    Row

    Hospital Admissions

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    Mortality

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    Row

    Hospital Admissions (cumulative)

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    Mortality (cumulative)

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    Readme

    Update 2020-05-19

    The model used in this case is the one proposed in Hauser et al. (2020), but adapted to the estimation of mortality and hospital admissions in the Basque Country. As indicated in the paper by Althaus et al. (2020) ( referred to the reader for more details), this is an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model stratified by age, with a distinction between symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The population is divided into nine age groups (0-9 years, 10-19 years,\(\ldots\) , 70-79 years, over 80 years).

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    The population of each \(k\) age group is subdivided into five compartments: susceptible (\(S_k\)), incubating or exposed (\(E_k\)), infected with symptoms (\(I_k\)), infected and asymptomatic (\(A_k\)), and recovered and dead (\(R_k\)) (see Figure \ref{fig1_annex_SEIR}).

    The number of individuals in each compartment is scaled according to the total population of the Basque Country (2,188,017 inhabitants in 2019), so that the sum of all compartments is 1.

    References

    • Hauser A, Counotte MJ, Margossian CC, Konstantinoudis G, Low N, Althaus CL, Riou J.
      Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modelling study in Hubei, China and northern Italy. \textit{medRxiv} 2020 (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104).

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