BCAM publishes a report with predictions about the evolution of COVID-19 in the Basque Country

The document gathers the prediction results of the models developed by researchers from BCAM, the UPV/EHU and Ikerbasque together with the health institutions of the Basque Country

The working group on mathematical modelling of the Basque Center for Applied Mathematics - BCAM brings together different approaches for the modelling of COVID-19. In collaboration with the clinical and health authorities in the Basque Country, it supports decision making and provides society with sophisticated mathematical tools to understand the evolution of the pandemic.

This multidisciplinary team has published a report that gathers the prediction results of the models developed by researchers from BCAM, the UPV/EHU and Ikerbasque together with the Basque health institutions within the BMFT - Basque Modelling Task Force COVID-19, promoted by the Department of Education and the Department of Health of the Basque Government.

The predictions have been made on different variables of interest such as the number of hospitalizations or deaths and considering two different time horizons: one in the short term, until May 24; and another in the long term, until July 1. The report, which can be consulted at the end of this page and is available for download at this link, will be updated in relation to the prediction time horizons as new data are received.

The document mainly includes the results of the predictions. However, at the end of the document, a detailed description of each of the models used can be found in an appendix: a stochastic SHARUCD type model, a Bayesian SEIR epidemiological model and a model based on Gaussian processes.

This is a preliminary report thas has not been certified by peer review and it should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behaviour. It shouldn't be reported in news media as established information either.
2nd report: May 22nd
1st report: May 14th