COVID-19

BCAM as a research center in Applied Mathematics and therefore, in line with its social commitment and its mathematical/statistical modeling expertise, works actively with other experts to contribute from Mathematics on the following main objectives:
Revising all relevant recent bibliography and developments on modelling applicable to COVID-19
Modelling the dynamics of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to describe the impact of the pandemic.
Developing mathematical and statistical models to predict hospital admissions
Infografia (EN)
Since the beginning of the health crisis, BCAM has put its experience and knowledge at the disposal of the administration. In fact, the center has set up a working group on COVID-19 within the framework of the Data Science and Artificial Intelligence research area and the Mathematical Modelling in Biology area, which collaborate closely with the UPV/EHU, Ikerbasque and Basque health institutions.

This is a multidisciplinary group that is carrying out its work from the Basque Country and Italy and is made up of internationally recognized scientists. They have extensive experience in modelling infectious diseases such as dengue or Ebola, and they collaborate with experts in this field from other institutions, which has made it possible to face the problem from various complementary scientific perspectives, providing administrations with information for decision-making, as well as day to day support for hospitals in managing this health crisis.

Through epidemiological models (SIR and extensions), operational research and Gaussian processes, it has been possible to describe the dynamics of the disease. The results have been validated with data on the incidence of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, data on hospital stays, ICU and mortality provided by Osakidetza. The results show that the epidemic in the Basque Country has now entered the linear phase, and the number of positive cases is stabilizing. Periodic reports have been prepared with the predictions, at seven days, of positive cases and hospital stays for both the Basque Country and its main ICOs. In addition, work continues on evaluating the effect of the containment measures carried out on the transmission of the disease with the aim of supporting future decisions on its progressive flexibilization.

BCAM has also made available on this website a report predicting the evolution of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, which considers two different time horizons: one short term, until June 5, and another long term, until July 31. This report is regularly updated with data provided by Osakidetza. The document includes the prediction results of the three models developed by the research staff of BCAM, the UPV/EHU and Ikerbasque together with the health institutions of the Basque Country on different variables of interest such as the number of hospitalisations or deaths. These predictions can also be seen in the interactive graphics that can be accessed from the following links: Graphs about the epidemiological SHARUCD model
Graphs about the model based on Gaussian processes
Graphs about the SEIR Bayesian model

In view of the economic and social impact caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, BCAM also proposes to continue contributing, focusing its fundamental research capacities, to strengthen the fight against the disease and to contribute to recovery and to minimize possible future impacts. In this sense, BCAM proposes to launch new research projects in the field of artificial intelligence for the tracking of affected people, early detection of symptoms compatible with COVID-19, modelling of asymptomatic people and even the relationship of the pandemic with other factors in collaboration with other centers such as the climate change research center, BC3.
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